Posted on
January 28, 2026
by
Dave Hall
All data courtesy of VIREB
As 2025 came to a close, the Vancouver Island real estate market remained resilient, even amid broader economic uncertainty. According to the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB), residential sales across the region increased modestly year over year, marking the second consecutive year of growth.
A Balanced Market Takes Shape
In total, 7,125 residential properties sold across the VIREB region in 2025, representing a 1.7% increase compared to 2024. The total value of those transactions reached $5.5 billion, up 4.3% year over year. While monthly sales remained below the 10-year average for much of the year, activity was steady enough to keep the market balanced rather than stalled.
Inventory levels stabilized throughout the year after several years of increases. As of December 2025, the region sat at 5.9 months of inventory, a level generally considered healthy and supportive of price stability.
Pricing Remains Stable
Despite ongoing economic pressures, home prices across Vancouver Island held relatively steady in 2025. The regional benchmark price increased 1.0% year over year, reaching $689,200 in December. Notably, prices remain approximately 7.4% below their 2022 peak, offering some perspective for both buyers and sellers navigating today’s market.
In the Cowichan Valley (Duncan area), benchmark pricing for single-family homes ended the year at $752,700, up 1.4% year over year, reflecting modest but consistent demand. Townhomes and apartment prices showed more variation, with a slight softening in some segments.
Uncertainty, But No Disruption
Several factors introduced additional uncertainty into the market in late 2025, including the Cowichan Indigenous title ruling and broader economic concerns. While these developments have encouraged caution—particularly among lenders and developers—they have not led to significant disruption in property ownership or day-to-day market activity.
New housing construction slowed during the year, with 2025 recording the lowest number of residential building permits since 2018. Rising construction costs and development constraints continue to limit new supply, which may help support pricing over the longer term.
Population Trends and Buyer Demand
For the first time since 2002, Vancouver Island experienced a slight population decline in 2025, driven largely by younger residents leaving for employment opportunities elsewhere. At the same time, the region continues to attract older residents aged 65 and over, a demographic that typically brings stronger purchasing power and long-term housing demand.
This shift suggests a slower near-term growth pace rather than a sharp downturn, particularly in lifestyle-focused communities like the Cowichan Valley.
Looking Ahead to 2026
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% in December and has indicated that further cuts are unlikely in the near term. Fixed mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable through much of 2026, offering predictability for buyers and homeowners alike.
Overall, VIREB expects market conditions to remain steady heading into 2026. While uncertainty persists, Vancouver Island continues to benefit from long-term lifestyle appeal, relative affordability, and balanced supply and demand.
Final Thoughts
Every market shift looks different at the neighbourhood level. While regional statistics provide helpful context, buying or selling decisions should always be grounded in local trends and individual circumstances.
If you’re considering a move in the Cowichan Valley, I’m happy to walk through how these broader trends apply to your specific situation.
